commit 75be123a0b7b5310bf04710f7217d39f5972c9de
Author: Barak Michener <me@barakmich.com>
Date:   Fri Jul 26 22:23:34 2013 -0400

    initial commit

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
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+# Lady of the Lake
+### _Strange women lying in ponds, distributing swords, is no basis for a system of government!_ 
+
+It will occur to anyone who plays enough [Resistance](link) or [Avalon](link) that there's a great deal of probability afoot. If you've ever said "There's a 50/50 chance this team is bad!" you know what I'm talking about.
+
+Lady of the Lake is a tool to track these games, build a Bayesian model of the situation as it stands, and, hopefully, deduce exactly what everyone's role is.
+In the future, it may also turn into a full-blown AI.
+
+Written in Python (fortunately thematic!) and using the fantastic pyMC toolkit.
+
+### _There are ways of telling whether she is a witch!_
+(describe model)
+
+### 
diff --git a/requirements.txt b/requirements.txt
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+argparse==1.2.1
+clint==0.3.1
+numpy==1.7.1
+pymc==2.2
+wsgiref==0.1.2
diff --git a/tim.py b/tim.py
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+import pymc as mc
+import functools
+import itertools
+from collections import defaultdict as dd
+import pprint
+
+
+def ResistanceGame(n_players):
+  full_set = [("G1", True), ("G2", True), ("G3", True), ("E1", False), ("E2", False),
+              ("G4", True), ("E3", False), ("G5", True), ("G6", True), ("E4", False)]
+  return full_set[:n_players]
+
+
+class DeceptionGame(object):
+  def __init__(self, player_array):
+    self.player_array = player_array
+    self.all_permutations = list(itertools.permutations(player_array))
+    self.deck_var = mc.DiscreteUniform("deal", 0, len(self.all_permutations) - 1)
+    self.n_players = len(player_array)
+    self.model = None
+
+
+    self.player_alliance_vars = []
+    self.player_role_vars = []
+    self.role_ids =  {}
+    i = 0
+
+    for card in player_array:
+      role, good = card
+      self.role_ids[role] = i
+      i += 1
+
+    def player_alliance(x, deck_var = self.deck_var):
+      return self.all_permutations[deck_var][x][1]
+
+    def player_role(x, deck_var = self.deck_var):
+      role_str = self.all_permutations[deck_var][x][0]
+      return self.role_ids[role_str]
+
+    for x in range(self.n_players):
+      alliance = mc.Deterministic(eval = functools.partial(player_alliance, x),
+                                  name = "player_alliance_%d" % x,
+                                  parents = { "deck_var" : self.deck_var },
+                                  doc = "Is player %d good?" % x,
+                                  dtype = bool,
+                                  trace = True,
+                                  plot = False)
+
+      self.player_alliance_vars.append(alliance)
+
+      role = mc.Deterministic(eval = functools.partial(player_role, x),
+                              name = "player_role_%d" % x,
+                              parents = { "deck_var" : self.deck_var },
+                              doc = "Who is player %d?" % x,
+                              dtype = str,
+                              trace = True,
+                              plot = False)
+      self.player_role_vars.append(role)
+    self.observations = []
+    self.tid = 0
+
+  def add_known_alliance(self, player_id, is_good):
+    transaction = []
+    obs = mc.Bernoulli("player_seen_tid%d" % self.tid,
+                       self.player_alliance_vars[player_id],
+                       value = is_good,
+                       observed = True)
+    transaction.append(obs)
+    self.observations.append(transaction)
+    self.tid += 1
+
+  def add_known_role(self, player_id, role_str):
+    transaction = []
+    obs = mc.Bernoulli("player_seen_role_tid%d" % self.tid,
+                       self.player_role_vars[player_id],
+                       value = self.role_ids[role_str],
+                       observed = True)
+    transaction.append(obs)
+    self.observations.append(transaction)
+    self.tid += 1
+
+
+  def eval(self, length=40000):
+    mcmc = mc.MCMC(self._build_model_list())
+    mcmc.sample(length, 2000)
+    self.model = mcmc
+
+  def report(self):
+    if self.model is None:
+      self.eval()
+    out = []
+    for i in range(self.n_players):
+      out.append(self.get_player_data(i))
+    return out
+
+  def get_player_data(self, i):
+    out = {}
+    role_key = "player_role_%d" % i
+    alliance_key = "player_alliance_%d" % i
+
+    temp_role = self._aggregate(list(self.model.trace(role_key)))
+    out["role"] = {}
+    for k, v in temp_role.iteritems():
+      out["role"][self.player_array[int(k)][0]] = v
+    out["alliance"] = self._aggregate(list(self.model.trace(alliance_key)))
+    return out
+
+  def _aggregate(self, l):
+    out = dd(float)
+    size = len(l) * 1.0
+    for x in l:
+      out[x] += 1 / size
+    return dict(out)
+
+
+  def print_report(self):
+    pp = pprint.PrettyPrinter(indent = 4)
+    pp.pprint(self.report())
+
+  def _build_model_list(self):
+    out = []
+    out.append(self.deck_var)
+    out.extend(self.player_alliance_vars[:])
+    out.extend(self.player_role_vars[:])
+    flattened = [item for transaction in self.observations for item in transaction]
+    out.extend(flattened[:])
+    return list(set(out))
+
+
+base_game = DeceptionGame(ResistanceGame(5))
+base_game.eval(10000)
+base_game.add_known_role(0, "G1")
+base_game.add_known_alliance(1, False)
+base_game.eval()
+
+base_game.print_report()
+